Prop. 22 would create a new legal classification for Uber drivers, Instacart shoppers, and DoorDash deliverers not quite employees, but not the independent contractors they've been until now. If the measure fails, the companies likely will have to recognize their workers as employees. Uber and Lyft have threatened to leave the state if that happens, or make big changes to their services, which would disrupt life for both drivers and customers. Uber suggests that the company would dismiss 75% of its drivers, mostly part-time workers, and that Uber fares would spike by 25% to 111%. But a report published this month by Michael Reich, a UC Berkeley economist who has played a key role in driver pay fights in New York and Seattle, casts doubt on Uber's numbers. Reich suggests the gig companies would use drivers more efficiently and save money on recruiting and retaining drivers, so fares would only rise by 5% to 10%. He finds that driver pay would increase by 30% if they were treated as employees rather than contractors.