More Californians Recognize Climate Change Is Caused Mostly by Human Activities

Most also support making corporations pay, and decreasing fossil fuel emissions, to mitigate climate-driven displacement.

BERKELEY, CA – More Californians than ever recognize that global climate change is driven by human activities. But while awareness of climate change’s causes has grown among the state’s residents, most have yet to recognize how environmental conditions are fueling transnational migration. These are among the findings of a recent statewide survey commissioned by the Othering and Belonging Institute at UC Berkeley (OBI).

The survey is notable in light of the recent announcement that U.S. president-elect Donald Trump will nominate someone who denies the existence of a climate crisis to lead the federal Department of Energy.

The California Survey on Othering and Belonging was conducted in summer 2024 with a random sample of 2,258 respondents. A first iteration of the survey was carried out with a similar number of Californians in 2017. Both surveys asked respondents if they believe global climate change is “caused mostly by human activities,” “mostly by natural changes,” or if it “is not happening.”

Comparing results from 2017 to 2024, there was a 9 percentage-point increase (61% to 70%) in the share of Californians who believe global climate change is caused “mostly by human activities.” The uptick is due in large part to Californians between the ages of 18 to 39. For this age group, the share that say climate change is mostly human caused increased from 63% to 84%. The shares also increased across each of the state’s four largest race/ethnicity groups, led by Black and Latinx Californians (see graph).

The survey revealed a corresponding dip in the share of Californians who attribute climate change to “mostly natural changes” (29% to 20%). In both years, 10% said that climate change “is not happening.”

These patterns in climate change awareness are not unique to California. Other recent public opinion research finds that 61% of the country overall attributes climate change to human activity. 

The Othering and Belonging Institute (OBI) designed the 2024 Survey on Othering and Belonging in partnership with the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA).

Although the survey found that Californians overwhelmingly recognize that human activities drive climate change, far fewer see a link between climate change and cross-border migration. The survey asked respondents why they think immigrants today come to the United States, providing several options related to the economy, violence, and political freedoms, along with “climate change and bad environmental conditions in their home countries.” 

Overall, a plurality of Californians (41%) said that based on what they know, climate change and environmental conditions are “not a reason” that people immigrate to the United States. Just 25%  consider climate change a “major reason” that people immigrate. By comparison, 75% of Californians point to good economic opportunities in the U.S., and 75% point to bad economic conditions abroad as a reason. Similarly, 71% see  “violence and instability in their home countries” as major reasons that people immigrate. 

Notably, only a slightly higher percentage of college graduates recognized a connection between climate change and migration (38% said “not a reason”). The partisan divide is greater than the education divide, with Republicans much more likely to see climate as “not a reason” for immigration (58%) than Democrats (29%). 

“The problem is that the stories we most often hear about why people migrate tend to focus on one cause — a lack of jobs or a war, for example. Reality isn’t that simple,” said Hossein Ayazi, Senior Policy Analyst with the Global Justice Program at OBI, who has studied climate displacement and refugees extensively. 

Ayazi explained that migration researchers have pointed to how climate change intersects with and intensifies various factors that push people to move. For example, climate change directly undermines local economic opportunities and livelihoods tied to agriculture, fishing, and forestry. 

“Also, many of the industries that have enriched the United States and made it a migrant destination are simultaneously heating the planet at a record pace, which disproportionately hurts the Global South,” said Ayazi. “So climate and migration are deeply interrelated. This survey points to the great need for public education on these dynamics.” 

In the survey’s final question, respondents were told of the impact that climate change is having on migration: “Worsening climate conditions are pushing more and more people to leave their homes and migrate to other countries, even when they would prefer to stay.” They were then asked whether they would support or oppose a series of measures to respond to this issue.

Most Californians would support increasing steps to slow climate change and make corporations that contribute to climate change pay to mitigate its effects. In total, 62% of those surveyed said they support “taking more aggressive steps to slow climate change by decreasing reliance on fossil fuels,” with 42% “strongly” supporting this. Similarly, 60% support “requiring corporations that contribute to climate change to fund aid to affected countries to help people be able to stay,” with 43% expressing strong support. 

While support overall was around 50% for two other alternatives, only half as many “strongly support” steps to have the federal government increase funding aid to affected countries, and to offer refugee status to migrants who have been pushed to move from their home countries by worsening climate conditions.

Background on the 2024 California Survey on Othering and Belonging

The public opinion firm FM3 Research administered the 2024 California Survey on Othering and Belonging between July 10 and August 4. FM3 contacted a random sample of adult residents of California via live phone, text messaging, and email. Survey respondents could complete the survey over the phone or in written form online, in either English or Spanish. The full sample included 2,258 adult California residents. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence level. The project employed oversampling to ensure statistically reliable numbers of respondents who identified themselves as Hispanic/Latinx, white, Black/African American, and Asian Americans of East Asian, Southeast Asian, and South Asian descent. Geographic regions were also oversampled to yield statistically reliable numbers by region.

For media inquiries, contact Ivan Natividad at ivan.natividad@berkeley.edu, 510-325-3349.