Joshua Goldstein

Research Expertise and Interest

mortality, fertility, aging, social inequality, mathematical demography, economic demography, quantitative methods, United States, Europe

Research Description

Joshua Goldstein is a demographer, with broad interests in social and economic inequality and population dynamics. His research applies sociological, economic, and demographic theories to answer questions such as — Are there economic benefits of cultural assimilation for immigrants? How do we forecast the marriage and fertility of cohorts that are still in their 20s and early 30s? How can Big Data help us understand the causes of longevity differences by ethnic group, race, and social class?

He is the Chancellor’s Professor of Demography and Director of the Berkeley Population Center. He is Principle Investigator of the CenSoc Project on mortality disparities and a contributor to the DemogBlog.

Prior to coming to Berkeley, he was a Director of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, and, before that, Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs at Princeton University. He received his MA in Demography and Social Sciences from the School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS) in Paris and his Ph.D. in Demography from Berkeley.

In the News

Prioritizing oldest for COVID-19 vaccines saves more lives, years of life

Challenging the idea that older people with shorter life expectancies should rank lower in coronavirus immunization efforts, new UC Berkeley research shows that giving vaccine priority to those most at risk of dying from COVID-19 will save the maximum number of lives, and their potential or future years of life.

Demographers put COVID-19 death toll into perspective

With over 170,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, and 1,000 more each day, America’s life expectancy may appear to be plummeting. But in estimating the magnitude of the pandemic, UC Berkeley demographers have found that COVID-19 is likely to shorten the average U.S. lifespan in 2020 by only about a year.

Featured in the Media

Please note: The views and opinions expressed in these articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or positions of UC Berkeley.
March 1, 2021

Vaccinating Oldest First for COVID Saves The Most Lives: Study

HealthDay
Putting the oldest people near the front of the line for COVID-19 shots will save more lives and may extend their lifespan, too, researchers say. The new study findings challenge the view that older people should be lower on the list for shots because they have a shorter life expectancy, according to the team from the University of California, Berkeley. "Since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely assumed that means we're saving fewer years of life," said lead author Joshua Goldstein, professor of demography. "We show this to be mistaken...The age patterns of COVID-19 [death rates] are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy." For more on this, see our press release at Berkeley News.
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November 16, 2020

Coronavirus: A Month-By-Month Look at California's Path Forward

The Mercury News
Lisa M. Krieger
Even in this dark moment, as coronavirus cases surge to even more alarming levels and new lockdowns are imposed, there is a path forward to guide us out of this pandemic, experts say. What will life look like over the next year? UC Berkeley demographers Ronald Lee and Joshua Goldstein say the virus will shorten this country's average lifespan in 2020 by about a year. That's because older people, with fewer remaining years of life, represent the most fatalities, according to their research. But without interventions, they say, we could have lost five years. At universities, it's a mixed picture. Some campuses will try to bring students on campus. At UC Berkeley, the first two weeks will be fully remote but limited in-person instruction will start in February. Perhaps by next autumn, if our vaccine rollout is a success, life will feel safe enough to ease anxieties, rebuild relationships and start an unfettered restoration of the economy. "As we work to contain this epidemic," said UC Berkeley demographer Lee, "it is important to know that we have been through such mortality crises before." For more on this, see our press release at Berkeley News.
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September 28, 2020

Few Causes For Optimism in COVID-19's Toll - Yet

Bloomberg
Justin Fox
COVID-19 is especially hard on the old and frail, with 79% of the deaths attributed to the disease in the U.S. among those 65 and older and 94% among people with at least one "comorbidity" such as diabetes, dementia, obesity or hypertension. 2020 is likely to see big increases in overall mortality. Because of the age profile of the disease, though, the life expectancy decline would be less historic. In a study that estimated 11.7 average years of life lost by U.S. COVID victims, University of California at Berkeley demographers Joshua R. Goldstein and Ronald D. Lee also estimated that 250,000 additional deaths due to the disease would decrease average U.S. life expectancy at birth by about 10 months (0.84 years) - the biggest one-year drop since World War II but smaller than decreases in 1943 and several years in the 1920s and 1930s (mostly due to bad flu seasons), and just a fraction of the staggering 11.8-year decline in 1918.
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