If the Democrats nominate Bernie Sanders, they will be exchanging some of the most reliable voters for some of the least, a new survey of more than 40,000 people suggests. The study, conducted by
associate political science professor David Broockman and Joshua Kalla, a colleague from Yale, found that when they weighted their numbers, as polls usually do, to reflect the demographics of the population, rather than those of likely voters, it looks like Sanders would be the best bet to beat Trump. But, they say, there's a big difference between the people who actually vote and the people who can, and that's a discrepancy their survey addressed. Youth turnout would have to reach unprecedented rates for him to win, the survey suggests. They write in their report: "Given how many voters say they would switch to Trump in head-to-heads against Sanders compared to the more moderate candidates, the surge in youth turnout Sanders would require to gain back this ground is large: around 11 percentage points." Their report is available
here.